DROUGHT HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR CA RIVER BASIN

Alfio Bernardo¹, Nguyen Tien Quang², Truong Van Anh²

¹SWS Consulting Engineering srl, Roma, Italy

²Faculty of Meteorology and Hydrology, Hanoi University of Natural Resources and Environment, 41A, Phu Dien, North Tu Liem, Hanoi, Vietnam

Abstract

Ca River is a large inter-national river in the North Central region, playing an important role for socio-economic development, defense and security of Nghe An and Ha Tinh Provinces. Ca is an abundant river but is spatiotemporally distributed unevenly, stream flow is exceedingly accumulated during the flood season while the water shortage conflictingly appears in the period of scarce water resources during dry season. This research conducted hydrological drought hazard assessment under both current and climate change conditions based on water balance principle. CROPWAT, MIKE NAM, MIKE HYDEO BASIN and ArcGIS are jointly used for 75% and 85% water supply frequency, for mapping the drought hazard. Drought hazard is assessed based on two indicators, including deficit frequency (F%) and deficit magnitude (D%), the results has showed that water shortage is currently happening in typical sub-basins of Dien - Yen - Quynh (SC6), Nam - Hung - Nghi (SC7), Nghi Xuan zone (SC11), etc., while the RCP4.5 scenario (2016-2035) simulation application indicated increased levels of drought risk with the emergence in some basins of Giang river basin (SC4), Ngan Pho river basin ( SC9) in a very high water deficit state.

Keywords: Drought hazard, water balance, MIKE BASIN, Ca river, climate change

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